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CloudCraft(at)aol.com
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 Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 3:05 pm Post subject: N900RA's Final Flight |
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All,
I was asked to give my opinion about N900RA's last flight. For those of you who don't know or don't remember, it involved an Aero Commander Shrike that crashed in high terrain near the Nevada/Oregon/California border on 21 November, 2001, flying between Reno (KRNO) and Wenatchee (KEAT).
The operator was a very experienced Commander operator by reputation. I did not personally know the pilot. My opinion was asked for (as were a few of you, I believe) as part of an article that is being written for Aviation Safety.
[b]There are few accidents that I can point to and say, "What a dork! He should have ____________," and so, I am very conservative when it comes to placing blame, which is what accident investigations and articles want to do.
[/b]
Follows is my response, after reading the full NTSB report. I'm broadcasting this to you so you know my stance on this, just in case a "sound byte" appears in publication, in or out of context.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
After reading the NTSB report, it's pretty clear that the pilot and passengers were in the wrong place at the right time.
Severe down drafts, saturated air with icing and turbulence reported by various aircraft in the vicinity, a company (turbocharged, MR RPM conversion) Aero Commander 680FL(P) flying the same route, but in IFR at IFR altitudes having to use full power to climb against a downdraft and deviate from course to avoid mountain wave ...
The question that only speculation can answer is why fly VFR on that route, on that day?
One answer may be that the pilot thought that flying IFR at IFR altitudes may have been beyond the capability of the aircraft, given the conditions he was encountering. (Normally aspirated AC-500S; status of oxygen quantity and equipment; I don't know if N900RA was certified known ice)
A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place.
Given the nature of the operator and their area of operations (Pacific Northwest and Alaska, U.S. Forest Service contractor), they were no strangers to mountain weather phenomena and were strong instrument and Aero Commander pilots.
Maybe the pilot used his best strategy for the conditions of the day and that strategy didn't work.
To say the flight should not have been conducted that day is the easy analysis. I've made those decisions -- and I've also pressed on in the face of special missions. I'm a former U.S. Forest Service Air Attack pilot in an Aero Commander, and have flown in severe mountain wave conditions and my strategies worked. Maybe my strategies were marginal and I was on the razor's edge of failure the whole mission. Maybe I have been lucky enough to retreat a nanosecond prior to each catastrophe.
Flights for critical missions require a different risk assumption than flight for business or pleasure.
If one were to be critical of the chain of events and decisions for N900RA's last flight one has to know if the trip was truly essential or not.
Keith S. Gordon
aka "Wing Commander Gordon"
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nico(at)cybersuperstore.c
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| Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 3:36 pm Post subject: N900RA's Final Flight |
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Perhaps a lecture on mountain flying, especially mountain waves, would be a valuable piece of reading to all. It would be to me, I know.
Thanks
Nico
From: owner-commander-list-server(at)matronics.com [mailto:owner-commander-list-server(at)matronics.com] On Behalf Of CloudCraft(at)aol.com
Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2006 2:06 PM
To: commander-list(at)matronics.com
Subject: N900RA's Final Flight
[b]All,[/b]
[b]I was asked to give my opinion about N900RA's last flight. For those of you who don't know or don't remember, it involved an Aero Commander Shrike that crashed in high terrain near the Nevada/Oregon/California border on 21 November, 2001, flying between Reno (KRNO) and Wenatchee (KEAT).[/b]
[b]The operator was a very experienced Commander operator by reputation. I did not personally know the pilot. My opinion was asked for (as were a few of you, I believe) as part of an article that is being written for Aviation Safety.[/b]
[b]There are few accidents that I can point to and say, "What a dork! He should have ____________," and so, I am very conservative when it comes to placing blame, which is what accident investigations and articles want to do.[/b]
[b]Follows is my response, after reading the full NTSB report. I'm broadcasting this to you so you know my stance on this, just in case a "sound byte" appears in publication, in or out of context.[/b]
[b]+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++[/b]
[b]After reading the NTSB report, it's pretty clear that the pilot and passengers were in the wrong place at the right time.[/b]
[b]Severe down drafts, saturated air with icing and turbulence reported by various aircraft in the vicinity, a company (turbocharged, MR RPM conversion) Aero Commander 680FL(P) flying the same route, but in IFR at IFR altitudes having to use full power to climb against a downdraft and deviate from course to avoid mountain wave ...[/b]
[b]The question that only speculation can answer is why fly VFR on that route, on that day?[/b]
[b]One answer may be that the pilot thought that flying IFR at IFR altitudes may have been beyond the capability of the aircraft, given the conditions he was encountering. (Normally aspirated AC-500S; status of oxygen quantity and equipment; I don't know if N900RA was certified known ice)[/b]
[b]A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place.[/b]
[b]Given the nature of the operator and their area of operations (Pacific Northwest and Alaska, U.S. Forest Service contractor), they were no strangers to mountain weather phenomena and were strong instrument and Aero Commander pilots. [/b]
[b]Maybe the pilot used his best strategy for the conditions of the day and that strategy didn't work.[/b]
[b]To say the flight should not have been conducted that day is the easy analysis. I've made those decisions -- and I've also pressed on in the face of special missions. I'm a former U.S. Forest Service Air Attack pilot in an Aero Commander, and have flown in severe mountain wave conditions and my strategies worked. Maybe my strategies were marginal and I was on the razor's edge of failure the whole mission. Maybe I have been lucky enough to retreat a nanosecond prior to each catastrophe.[/b]
[b]Flights for critical missions require a different risk assumption than flight for business or pleasure.[/b]
[b]If one were to be critical of the chain of events and decisions for N900RA's last flight one has to know if the trip was truly essential or not.[/b]
[b]Keith S. Gordon[/b]
[b]aka "Wing Commander Gordon"[/b]
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kamala(at)msn.com
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| Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 6:15 pm Post subject: N900RA's Final Flight |
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<?xml:namespace prefix="v" /><?xml:namespace prefix="o" /><![endif]--> kg, concur. mason
[quote] ---
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YOURTCFG(at)aol.com
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| Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 6:50 pm Post subject: N900RA's Final Flight |
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In a message dated 7/9/2006 4:07:20 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, CloudCraft(at)aol.com writes:
| Quote: | | A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. |
That is true and I don't think could have been done that day. I ws in triple two, that day ant the time of this tragic accident. I to was flying VFR from 1W1 to S67. I was about 300nm north of the impact area. The weather to the south that day was in my opinion impassible in all but the most robust, tubocharged, fully dieced equipment. I flew only a few miles north of the leading edge of this lager weather front and if I even got close to any cloud, Ice immediately formed. I believe WCG last comment was the most telling, how essential is any flight we make. jb
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tylor.hall(at)sbcglobal.n
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| Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:34 pm Post subject: N900RA's Final Flight |
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I remember when the accident happened as well.I had just moved to Incline, NM at Lake Tahoe.
I got a real education of how bad the weather can get by living at 7600' in the mountains.
I always wondered how one of my favorite aircraft went down.
It has been a habit of mine to read the accident reports or the "never again" type of stories, to understand what went wrong and how can I apply it to my flying. I do not want to make the same mistake that someone did before me.
There is weather that is un-flyable and we should go tomorrow.
I have heard of reports of mountain waves that can cause 3000'/min down and up drafts along mountain ridges.
Here is my "There I was story".
I had just departed alone from Pagos Springs, CO in a 500B and was heading east over Wolf Creek Pass Ski Area. The pass is 10600' with mountains to the north and south over 13000'.
It was morning and perfectly clear day. There was a breeze out of the west.
I crossed the pass on a 45 degree angle, planed a route to return if required, and was climbing to 13000. Over the pass and on the east side I hit a clear air bump.
Every thing ended on the ceiling, charts, headsets, bumped by head, with out any warning.
It was very startling, but nothing else happened.
No additional bumps, Just smooth. Quick check of all the gauges, and a visual look out both sides. Every thing was fine.
The Mountains will try and get you any time.
It is not a big exciting story, but it did get my attention.
Tylor Hall
On Jul 9, 2006, at 8:50 PM, YOURTCFG(at)aol.com (YOURTCFG(at)aol.com) wrote:
| Quote: | In a message dated 7/9/2006 4:07:20 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, CloudCraft(at)aol.com (CloudCraft(at)aol.com) writes:
| Quote: | | A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. |
That is true and I don't think could have been done that day. I ws in triple two, that day ant the time of this tragic accident. I to was flying VFR from 1W1 to S67. I was about 300nm north of the impact area. The weather to the south that day was in my opinion impassible in all but the most robust, tubocharged, fully dieced equipment. I flew only a few miles north of the leading edge of this lager weather front and if I even got close to any cloud, Ice immediately formed. I believe WCG last comment was the most telling, how essential is any flight we make. jb
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