carl.froehlich(at)verizon
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 Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2013 4:48 pm Post subject: Unleaded aviation fuel - what are our General Aviation champ |
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Not really RV related, so delete now if you like.
While Lycoming is taking a much needed step toward a fuel that we can actually afford, I'm afraid our aviation champions simply reject any option other than a still non-existent 100LL drop in replacement. Below is an email I wrote to both the EAA and AOPA last January. EAA did not respond. AOPA sent a disjointed response about auto fuel availability in Virginia.
Perhaps if we all pinged on AOPA and EAA they may hear us over the turbine noise.
Carl
I note with interest articles such as in General Aviation on aviation fuel predictions: http://www.generalaviationnews.com/2013/01/predictions-aviation-fuel-in-2013/?utm_source=The+Pulse+Subscribers&utm_campaign=6f588e756e-TP2013&utm_medium=email
After a couple of decades of study and discussion, my evaluation is we are on a trajectory toward avgas prices that simply end the private pilot aspect of general aviation. We no longer have the luxury of time to cling to the only acceptable option for 100LL as a full replacement drop in. I have reviewed the “70%/30%” argument; 70% of all piston GA aircraft can run on non-ethanol unleaded premium auto fuel based avgas such as 91/96UL, but the remaining 30% of the piston GA aircraft that need 100LL consume 70% of the fuel. This logic has run its course and now needs to be revised in the light of current realities. I also question if we can rely on this argument’s base assumptions as they are untested by market demand as no affordable unleaded aviation fuel is readily available, and is a backward look at the legacy engine/aircraft population, not new engines/aircraft that would be tailored for a 91/96UL environment.
For the private pilot segment of general aviation, a non-ethanol premium auto fuel type product like 91/96UL is exactly the right solution and the market base for the fuel makes it continued availability, at reasonable prices, assured. While it is not a perfect, the clock is running out on producing a 100LL replacement fuel. If such a full replacement is ever delivered, the price for this novelty fuel is already estimated to be $.50 to $1 per gallon more than today’s 100LL. The added cost will accelerate the private pilot death spiral.
Although there are a few FBOs offering non-ethanol premium auto fuel the market penetration is dismal. I also note little evidence of organized efforts to promote widespread FBO, engine and aircraft manufacture embracing of existing unleaded aviation fuel options. I recommend a new strategy. I believe we have opportunity to bridge this fuel gap by a managed portfolio of options. Some FBOs may choose to carry both 100LL and the lower octane unleaded fuel, others may carry only one or the other based on their customer demand. What is needed is advocacy to establish the required policies and regulations, and collaboration with fuel suppliers, FBOs, aircraft and engine manufactures, state and federal agencies. This will mitigate the primary obstacle for 91/96UL adoption, legal risk.
While continued study of aviation fuel options is needed I believe we are at a tipping point. $6+ per gallon is not sustainable for the majority of private pilots paying for fuel out of their pocket. At the very least an affordable unleaded aviation fuel option would help slow the continued decline in the number of active private pilots.
Immediate action is needed to make an affordable 91/96UL type aviation fuel widely available .
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